Dr Simon Cripps, Chair Dorset LNP
They say it is only a brave or foolish person who predicts what is going to happen this year in these turbulent times. So let’s call me brave and guess what may be happening to Dorset’s environment this year and in the immediate future. This is purely a personal view, not necessarily the policy of the Dorset Local Nature Partnership.
Climate change
The biggest item on the environment or any other agenda is climate change. Despite dire warnings, a mountain of irrefutable data and pretty scary changes in climate and weather already, we still as a species seem to be hell-bent on heading down the same disastrous path. Popular movements in the form of Extinction Rebellion, and around Greta Thunburg speaking for young people who will inherit our mistakes, have as yet failed to get a major turn-around in our carbon emissions.
This is however an issue we can all do something about and indeed we all must, but governments and industry must also act. Great then to see that both Councils in Dorset have declared a Climate Emergency. Now they must put actions to their words and not just change their own operations to be sustainable, but use their influence to ensure the whole county takes action. The Dorset Local Nature Partnership will be both helping the Councils where we can and also holding them to account to ensure there are real, valuable steps taken. No-one says this will be easy but surely as Dorset does not have heavy industry, sustainability is another thing we can lead the way on. Dorset businesses need to follow, not by ticking boxes on a theoretical plan but by making real changes to their footprint and emissions. They will outcompete other businesses in the long run if they do.
Development plans
2020 will see a flurry of different types of industrial, economic development and local plans being published in Dorset. The Dorset Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) will publish its Local Industrial Strategy (LIS) that will map out how the LEP sees the county’s industries developing and prospering over the next few years. The Dorset Local Nature Partnership has put a great deal of time into influencing this strategy to ensure that environment is not only protected but is seen as a central plank for sustained business development and success. All the signs are that the LIS will have environmental considerations running right through all aspects of the plan.
Dorset and BCP (Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole) Councils will also be launching economic growth strategies that hopeful dovetail with the LIS. Dorset Council started the phrase “The Natural Place for Business” and should know better than most in the country how important the natural environment is. BCP’s future in terms of tourism, healthcare and many other sectors is also dependent on the fabulous natural environment of the area.
Again, the LNP is collaborating closely with both councils and as yet prospects look good. I still retain a concern about the word ‘growth’ though in these days when we simply must reduce our carbon emissions and impacts. As local plans, which lay out how councils see physical development in their areas, are developed the Dorset LNP will also be collaborating with the councils to ensure nature and environment is protected and supported.
Acts
In parallel with the development plans in 2020 we are expecting more Acts than a Shakespeare play. Government has promised Environment, Fisheries and Agriculture Bills, all delayed because of Brexit and purdah around the general election. Many NGOs are lobbying hard to ensure these Acts, which are needed to replace European legislation, have teeth and adequately protect the UK’s environment. Until we joined the EU the UK was ‘the dirty man of Europe’ with polluted air, rivers and seas and declining habitats and species. Irrespective of your view on Brexit, the EU has brought in protections for humans, wildlife and the environment and greatly increased the quality of the environment we live in. Opinions now differ as to whether taking these protections in-house as we leave the EU will be better, so we must be vigilant this year.
I predict that in 2020 there will be a new dawn for farming that will be less dependent on production subsidies and more geared around public benefit and sustainable production. We must support our Dorset farmers to provide environmental benefits such as flood control and biodiversity increases. This will though take many years with at least a seven-year transition period.
I suspect many fishermen will not be happy with a Fisheries Act, as rash promises by some politicians have been made around taking back control of our waters and relieving fishermen of catch limits. In the real world I can’t see that happening as legal access to fisheries is complicated and not all covered by Brexit. Also overfishing and damaging fishing can be done by British fishers or pesky foreign fleets. I can see our own highly competent authorities such as the IFCAs (Inshore Fishing and Conservation Authorities) taking on more responsibility and governing more of our seas, but they must be funded adequately to do that.
I suspect many fishermen will not be happy with a Fisheries Act, as rash promises by some politicians have been made around taking back control of our waters and relieving fishermen of catch limits. In the real world I can’t see that happening as legal access to fisheries is complicated and not all covered by Brexit. Also overfishing and damaging fishing can be done by British fishers or pesky foreign fleets. I can see our own highly competent authorities such as the IFCAs (Inshore Fishing and Conservation Authorities) taking on more responsibility and governing more of our seas, but they must be funded adequately to do that.
A new Environment Act is seen by some as an opportunity to water-down protections and environmental quality to take restrictions off industry and developers, as we are sadly seeing in the US and Brazil now. We must guard against this as such an approach will erode our natural capital and make the UK uncompetitive in the middle to long-term. I have hope that government will understand the value of environment and natural capital to health, prosperity and nature.
Dorset’s important places
In 2020 we should also see some local implications with the progress of projects such as of the Stour Valley Way, Brownsea Island visitors’ centre, Arne / Ridge coastal realignment and possibly even more support for our important designations such as the Dorset AONB. The Glover Report recommendations were supportive of greater support for AONBs and for considering the case for the designation of a National Park for Dorset. Such changes take longer than climate change these days, but I suspect the Environment and Agriculture Acts will precipitate some movement to better support these places we hold so dear and are so important for wildlife. I predict a National Park in Dorset will be much closer within 5 years, like it or not.
Health & Wellbeing
Finally I suspect that within the next 1 – 5 years there will be some significant changes in health and social care funding as decision-makers come to realise that there is now compelling evidence that access to, and ensuring, a high quality environment will not only improve our health and wellbeing, but also save the NHS and social care huge costs by ‘prevention at scale’.
Benefits come through cleaner air, better drinking water, exercise in fabulous surroundings and mental health improvements to name just a few. Working with Public Health Dorset and others the Dorset LNP has been leading the way with this. Further funding from Public Health Dorset has meant that this ground-breaking work will continue this year.
Overall
Within Dorset I am very hopeful for 2020. We have a powerful environmental lobby led and supported by the Dorset Local Nature Partnership with highly competent members acting in their own rights. At the moment the public, businesses and authorities in the most part value and support Dorset’s environment, with a few notable exceptions. Nationally I am more concerned but still hopeful that Britain will do the right thing next year, but there are so many variables.
Globally I’m really worried about the massive destruction of rainforest, bush, coral reefs and many, many species, also the runaway climate change loops such as loss of permafrost, forests and ocean current changes. My guess is (and here I get extremely speculative at the end) that the only way we will avert a climate and habitat catastrophe is through technical solutions and/or a change in some key recalcitrant governments as well as pressure on the most unsustainable industries such as fossil fuel.
We live in interesting environmental times. I think for Dorset 2020 will be good, but for the world less so.